「International Commodity Morning Post」international oil prices fell significantly, and most of the base metals in London rose

• Chicago Board of Trade corn, wheat and soybean futures were mixed on the 11th.
• U.S. oil and cloth oil fell 4.04% and 4.18% respectively on the 11th.
• Gold prices in New York rose 0.13% on the 11th.
• Affected by tight supply, base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange mostly rose at the close of trading on the 11th.
• Affected by tight supply, base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange mostly rose at the close of trading on the 11th.

 

【Agricultural Products】

Chicago Board of Trade corn, wheat and soybean futures were mixed on the 11th. On the day, the most actively traded July contract on the Chicago Board of Trade corn market closed at $7.5875 a bushel, down 2 cents, or 0.26%, from the previous session. The July wheat contract closed at $10.89 a bushel, up 30.75 cents, or 2.91 percent, from the previous session. The May soybean contract closed at $16.5525 a bushel, down 33.75 cents, or 2%, from the previous session.

Soybean futures fell as market profit-taking and China’s import demand slowed. La Niña is intensifying, increasing the risk of drought in the U.S. Plains and Midwest and West regions. Market analysts continue to be bullish on agricultural product futures, believing that wheat will continue to lead the rally, corn May and July contract prices will challenge the resistance level of $8.00 to $8.50, and soybean July contract prices are supported at $16.30.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed on the 11th that U.S. exporters exported 1.02 million tons of corn to China. According to the export inspection report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on the 11th, as of the week of April 7, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 55.8 million bushels, soybean export inspection volume was 28.1 million bushels, and wheat export inspection volume was 15.1 million bushels. In this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume of wheat in the United States was 647.7 million bushels, down 18% year-on-year; The cumulative export inspection volume of corn was 1.26 billion bushels, a decrease of 15%; The cumulative export inspection volume of soybeans was 1.651 billion bushels, down 18%. U.S. soybean exports are expected to be extremely strong in July and August.

The agricultural futures market closed on the 15th to celebrate the “Easter” in the West. North Dakota has not seen heavy snow for several years, which is not conducive to spring planting. The U.S. Plains are dry and the deltas are pouring rain. Cold weather in the Midwest has slowed down crop sowing and germination. (Chicago bureau reporter Xu Jing)

 

【Energy】

Due to the deterioration of the outlook for oil demand, international crude oil futures prices fell in the overnight market, and the decline expanded in the morning of the day, consolidating in a narrow range on the 11th, and international oil prices fell significantly at the close. By the end of the day, light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.97, or 4.04%, to close at $94.29 a barrel. London Brent crude futures for June delivery fell $4.3, or 4.18%, to settle at $98.48 a barrel.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in the United States, said on the 11th that the market’s fears of a recession have increased, and oil prices have rebounded. A Wall Street Journal poll of economists showed that the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months was 28 percent, up from 18 percent in January and 13 percent a year ago. In addition to being weighed on by a possible recession, the global release of strategic crude oil reserves has also weighed on oil prices, Flynn said.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at online forex trading platform OANDA, said “oil prices are in trouble in New York,” given the deteriorating outlook for oil demand, a stronger dollar and a senior U.S. government official saying U.S. President Joe Biden did not specifically ask India to reduce energy purchases from Russia. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that during a video meeting between the US president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Biden said he did not believe it was in India’s interest to accelerate or increase imports of energy and other commodities from Russia.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Bank, said concerns about the outbreak in China were growing and it looked like there was no end in sight to the lockdowns. Andy Lipow, president of the U.S. company Lipo Oil Co., said that the spread of the epidemic in China is now the biggest negative for the market. If the pandemic causes lockdowns to be imposed in many parts of China, this will have a significant impact on the oil market.

However, OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo warned that current and future sanctions against Russia could lead to the worst oil supply shock ever. Russia’s oil supply could be reduced by more than 7 million b/d due to current and future sanctions and buyers’ active evasion. (Reporter Liu Yanan, reporter of the North American General Branch)

【Metal】
Due to the decline in the U.S. stock market, the most actively traded gold futures market in June 2022 rose by $2.6 from the previous trading day on the 11th, closing at $1948.2 per ounce, an increase of 0.13%. Market participants are also awaiting the release of the US consumer price index for March on the 12th and the US producer price index for March on the 13th.

As for price action, traders will wait for the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea region and the level of inflation in the US to become clearer. Market analysts believe that market technical indicators are improving, and gold prices are struggling to break out of the sideways trading range of $1,890 to $1,950. Once it holds ground at $1,950, gold prices will continue to rise. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit on the 11th that it is “extremely likely” that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its May monetary policy meeting. At the same time, he said, the Fed also needs to have enough time to assess inflationary pressures to make policy adjustments.

Silver futures for May 2022 delivery rose 16.4 cents, or 0.66%, to settle at $24.987 an ounce on the day. Platinum futures for July delivery rose $2.2, or 0.23%, to settle at $977.8 an ounce. (Chicago bureau reporter Xu Jing)

Affected by tight supply, base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange mostly rose at the close of trading on the 8th. Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said base metals have been tracking the energy market to some extent as energy prices push up production costs. “Supplies are constrained and inventories are low for most metals, so we forecast that prices will remain high for most of the year, even as the economy slows,” she said. ”

Three-month copper closed at $10,344 a tonne, up $30.5, or 0.30%, from the previous session. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to hit record highs in the middle of the year against the backdrop of historically low global copper inventories. Three-month zinc was the base metal that rose the day the most, closing at $4,298 a tonne, up $133.5, or 3.21%, from the previous session. It comes after news that commodities trader Trafigura and other companies are pulling large quantities of zinc from the London Metal Exchange’s Asian warehouse. Fastmarkets metals analyst Ana de Leeds said that only more than 4,000 lots of zinc were traded, proving that the market was weak.

In other metals, 3-month aluminum finally closed at $3,372 a tonne, down $28, or 0.28%, from the previous session. Three-month lead closed at $2,410 a tonne, up $39, or 1.64%, from the previous session. Three-month nickel closed at $33,990 a tonne, up $120, or 0.35%, from the previous session. Three-month tin closed at $43,530 a tonne, down $20, or 0.05%, from the previous session. (London bureau reporter Yang Hairuo)

 

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